Mr. Wright, meet Professor Buchanan
Or, public choice theory meets the NBA draft
Tar Heel fans nervously await the decision by freshman forward Brandan Wright. Will he leave this year for the NBA? This Raleigh writer thinks he might want to stay and improve his position in the draft.
After all, why would NBA general managers salivate over a 205-lb power forward who misses about half his free throws, is a middling post defender and has a shooting range of about 8 feet?
Blame the NBA, which tried to change human nature by 1) setting a salary structure for rookies for at least their first three if not five years in the pros and then 2) requiring them to stay out of the draft for at least one year out of high school.
The rookie cap is the bigger problem. Once upon a time, college and high school players could let teams bid for their services on the open market. Underclassmen who were on the edge of the lottery could make a lot more money early in their careers if they returned to school and improved their skills, and became more valuable to NBA teams. (As Len Elmore, who has been a player and agent has said, you don't get any better fundamentally once you leave college.)
Wright is a pretty sure bet to be a solid NBA player. So why not go pro now, when he'd not make much more money (or might indeed earn less over his career) if he stayed in school?
NBA teams would still try to lure guys like Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant or Dwight Howard right out of high school. Brandan Wright? Maybe not.
Now, there's actually a penalty for staying in college. Since a player's salary is based on where he goes in the draft, rookies have their salaries pretty much set for their first five years in the league. Every year in school is one less year he can't cash in at the pro level. So if you might be picked fourth (like Wright) but actually go 10th, you're forgoing maybe $5 million at first. By his 24th birthday, however, he would be an unrestricted free agent. By staying in school, he's losing one year of earning power as a pro. And face it, making $11.6 million now as even the 10th pick in the draft ain't exactly monopoly money.
The perverse consequence of setting a rookie salary cap is that the NBA makes it more likely that kids will turn pro at their earliest convenience. The marginal cost of staying in school is millions of forgone dollars.
The only way to fix this is to dump the rookie payscale, and return to the days when it really was a gamble to go pro early.
Meantime, I hope Brandan returns. But I'd be shocked if he does.
UPDATE: He's gone.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
|You Are 45% Left Brained, 55% Right Brained|
The left side of your brain controls verbal ability, attention to detail, and reasoning.
Left brained people are good at communication and persuading others.
If you're left brained, you are likely good at math and logic.
Your left brain prefers dogs, reading, and quiet.
The right side of your brain is all about creativity and flexibility.
Daring and intuitive, right brained people see the world in their unique way.
If you're right brained, you likely have a talent for creative writing and art.
Your right brain prefers day dreaming, philosophy, and sports.
I dunno. I have no artistic talents, I prefer cats, I'm not much of a risk-taker ... but I do like sports. And day-dreaming. Where was I?
Hat tip: Virginia.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Close feline call
Slight panic when I heard that a new cat food was added to the recall list -- Dick Van Patten's (yes, that Dick Van Patten's) Natural Balance Green Pea and Venison dry food. The Amazing Willow is allergic to most normal proteins -- poultry, fish, lamb. So I've had to find "exotics" for her or her face and ears break out in a rash. The DVP worked well for awhile, but she grew allergic to that, too ... months before the stuff was tainted, thank goodness. Now she's eating the most expensive food imaginable. Hill's Prescription Diet z/d, which is reportedly made from kangaroo meat. At least she's pretty healthy otherwise.
Update: And as you can see, very relaxed!